A GOVERNMENT IN LEBANON?

Agreement Secured by Giving Aoun Communications Portfolio; Among Opposition Hizbullah Up, Aoun Down

After over a month of wrangling, it appears that this week Lebanon will finally have a government. For about six months it had a government, under Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, but no president, yet since the election of Imad Michel Sulayman, they have had a president but no government, with prime minister-designate Siniora trying to reach a ministry-distribution agreement among the factions of the majority and the opposition. With violence flaring up in various parts of the country, especially Tripoli, pressure has been strong to reach an agreement. The main outline of discussion has been the Imad Aoun Christian faction of the opposition struggling for control of a "power ministry" while their Shia allies, having achieved all they wanted at Doha, sat on the sidelines. The final result seems to show that while Hizbullah is strong, Aoun is not, and he was able to do no better than the Communications Ministry.

This will be the ministry distribution, according to the Kuwaiti daily al-Jarida ("Lebanon: The Opposition Decided on their Ministers and the Majority Awaits Hariri's Return; Hizbullah: We Conceded Two Ministries for our Allies"):

• The Majority - finance, education, justice, employment, economics, expatriates, media, environment, culture, management development and tourism.


• The Opposition - foreign affairs, communications, energy, labor, health, agriculture, industry.

The ultimate "power ministries" - defense and interior - are left to the discretion of President Sulayman.

The article notes that the key to the agreement was giving Aoun communications. In most countries this would not be so important, but remember that it was the majority's control of the communications ministry which was key to the recent showdown over Hizbullah's independent military communications network. It didn't do them any good, since Hizbullah had the military power to force them to back down, nevertheless it is an important ministry.

That said, this is a defeat for Aoun even as Hizbullah has been able to sit back, having won its veto right at Doha. Aoun wanted to be president, but didn't get that, then failed to get either defense or interior, so he demanded finance, and the majority refused him that. They offered him foreign affairs, a post which has gone to the Shia in the past, and he didn't seem interested. A report in al-Jarida last week indicated that Aoun might get to appoint a deputy prime minister and have one of his people become foreign minister plus one other. The breakdown published so far doesn't make clear who gets what other than that Aoun gets communications.

Al-Arabiya reported on this without giving the breakdown, and also confirmed that the formal anouncement for the new government is expected mid-week. It, along with other news sources, stated that the major sticking point now will be the "ministerial statement" which outlines the agenda of the government. With new parliamentary elections looming next year, it seems that everyone is positioning themselves for that, especially the Christians, since they are divided between the majority and opposition. The Al-Arabiya report also notes that President Sulayman is expected to take up the issue of Hizbullah's weapons, the most sensitive issue in the country, along with the role of Syria. To my mind Sulayman has shown no indication that he is willing to deal firmly with Hizbullah, but we will have to wait and see.