UPDATES, 06.22.2008

A Regular Feature Updating News on Topics from Recent Posts

Lebanon
Low-level violence continues in Lebanon as the majority and opposition continue to wrangle over cabinet posts. The struggle is over the so-called "power ministries" - defense, interior, finance and foreign affairs. Maronite opposition leader Imad Aoun wants one of them, and the majority isn't budging. They insist that the "consensus president" will appoint defense and interior, and the majority will have finance and foreign affairs. Hizbullah is a involved at the street level, but is not taking part in this power struggle, having already won their right to maintain their private army and veto over future actions by the government, whoever might be in it. This is a struggle between Hizbullah's allies - especially Aoun - and the Siniora-led majority. Siniora is now "prime minister-designate" with no cabinet. It appears - and I'm piecing this together from multiple Arab press reports, not really sure at this time - is that the only power ministry Aoun is being offered is foreign affairs, but he wants finance or one of the security portfolios and the majority is refusing this. What is clear is that President Sulayman will apoint defense and interior, the majority will hold to finance and communications, and Aoun is not happy at all.

Now there is talk of the "overthrow" of the Doha agreement, as violence between allies of the two sides increased in Tripoli over the weekend, an escalation which was accompanied by an increase in violence in the Ayn al-Hilwa Palestinian camp. In Tripoli, to be specific, it is a fight between allies of Hariri and the Alawis, who of course are the same identity group as that which rules Syria, Hariri's main enemy and Hizbullah's ally. Things are not getting better, they are getting worse. Doha is very close to being a dead letter.

Recent related posts -
- Lebanon and the Arab Alignment, May 27
- Beruit Burning, May 11

Iraq
Sadr has a new strategy, and the Washington Post ("Powerful Iraqi Cleric Recalibrates Strategy") has part of the story. What is missed here - and reported in the Arab media - is that Sadr isn't sitting out the provincial elections, he is simply seeding his supporters as independents through other lists, mainly those of Ibrahim Jaafari and (to a lesser extent) Iyad Allawi, to give them protection from Maliki's intent to ban them. I don't think, as the WaPo article seems to suggest, that they pulled out for fear of loss - Maliki was planning to ban them by law for having a militia. I expect that if provincial elections go forward in October, this will give Jaafari a big boost.

Otherwise, indications of this new tendency in the Iraqi government toward pushing back at Iran as well continue, as Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani, who lived in Iran for years during the Baathist period, has been criticizing Iran over its interference with full control of the Faka oil field, which is near the Iranian border. (source) The government has also moved its military operations to Amara, Maysan, a province in which the Mahdi Army has always been strong. Reports indicate that the Sadrists surrendered their office in the city of Amara without a fight, unlike elsewhere. These operations continue.

Recent related posts -
- Shia Fragmentation Continues, June 13
- Sistani Moves Against U.S. Agreement, June 1